tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post1264636119983042165..comments2024-03-17T05:15:55.634-04:00Comments on The Brooklyn Investor: Happy New Year! Bubble Yet?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger49125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-48113471578637749802022-06-23T00:46:16.540-04:002022-06-23T00:46:16.540-04:00Hi, I'm still around. I haven't specifical...Hi, I'm still around. I haven't specifically decided to stop blogging or anything like that. I have always intended to post something when I have something to say and won't post too much repetitive stuff if I am just going to say the same thing all the time. And since this is not intended to be a business, I have no motivation to post for the sake of posting. <br /><br />I have read the JPM annual, BRK annual, watched the BRK annual meeting on Yahoo Finance, and thought I might have something to say after those, which I often did in the past, but didn't really have any interesting thoughts to add this year. Also, it is true that I am spending a lot less time going through financial statements and whatnot, so obviously, I am not getting new ideas or thoughts on that front either. <br /><br />Having said that, my thoughts haven't really changed despite the dramatic change in the environment. <br /><br />Maybe I will post something soon if I can get enough interesting to say... <br /><br />Thanks for dropping by! <br />kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-16498770080420677492022-06-01T11:17:42.850-04:002022-06-01T11:17:42.850-04:00Hey Brooklyn, have you stopped blogging? It has be...Hey Brooklyn, have you stopped blogging? It has been a while since your last post. Always enjoyed your work. TxAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-57119066011140682022021-05-12T10:09:06.223-04:002021-05-12T10:09:06.223-04:00Brooklyn,
Thank for your well thought out posts ...Brooklyn,<br /><br /> Thank for your well thought out posts and reasoning, it has been a big help to me, especially rereading the parts in a previous post about technical analysis.<br /><br />You have done your good deed for the day.<br /><br />Thank you.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-74608085163617137092021-04-21T15:06:55.043-04:002021-04-21T15:06:55.043-04:00Hi,
Yes, I have been doing all sorts of things, no...Hi,<br />Yes, I have been doing all sorts of things, not particularly exciting, but useful. I did get into a bit of machine learning and things like that which is very interesting and reminds me of some quant stuff I used to do (but way more advanced, of course). But issues are, as usual, where do you get the data? And two, I am really not that kind of investor, lol... I am into company specific research, reading 10K's etc., so I am not sure how useful all of that is to me. But it is fun and interesting to learn that stuff. <br /><br />As for books, yeah, I should update my book list sometimes. I just finished thee new book by Reed Hastings about the Netflix culture. I understand that these things can be trendy; whatever company is doing well and is hot at the time, we dissect their culture assuming that is key to winning, but you never really know if what works for Netflix will work for others etc. <br /><br />But it is interesting reading nonetheless. There is a lot there that really makes sense. <br /><br />I will try to make some posts about other reading... I should post more, lol... I know... <br /><br />Anyway, thanks for dropping by. kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-21479984264136418812021-04-20T00:39:18.168-04:002021-04-20T00:39:18.168-04:00Hi KK,
If I may, are you still coding projects in...Hi KK,<br /><br />If I may, are you still coding projects in Python? How is that going, any specific areas which are interesting? Also, would be greatly appreciated if you update the books lists, looking for some new ideas...<br /><br />Thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-42794725032479000932021-02-17T16:52:51.965-05:002021-02-17T16:52:51.965-05:00Thanks. Yes, I am not worried at the moment about ...Thanks. Yes, I am not worried at the moment about interest rates at all. My "model" is based on 4% long term rates, and we are very far from that. Of course, the market will tank at every little uptick in rates even far below 4%... This doesn't mean the market can't go down for other reasons, of course. kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-81525421806632498322021-02-17T00:09:40.180-05:002021-02-17T00:09:40.180-05:00Hey man I've been reading your stuff for years...Hey man I've been reading your stuff for years. Good comments as always. What do you think about the recent rise in 10 Year Treasury rates? My opinion is that with various factors (such as birth rates, demographics) we will probably end up with decades of low interest rates - probably in my lifetime. So I don't think rates will rise too much. Anyway thanks JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-35079739746992495872021-02-12T20:04:24.319-05:002021-02-12T20:04:24.319-05:00I don't know, but I always had a problem with ...I don't know, but I always had a problem with this sort of distinction. Greenblatt did away with that sort of absolute valuation idea. When you see metrics like P/E, P/S, they never really look at ROE, earnings growth etc... so of course a 20x P/E stock may have more value than a 10x P/E stock depending on the other metrics. <br /><br />I think part of the underperformance these days has a lot to do with that, very large, secular trends that are occurring that are obliterating entire industries, so the percentage of value traps is probably a lot higher than they used to be. <br /><br />There are a lot of other secular trends that can explain some of this... Like shift in pricing power... lot of former brand companies have lost their pricing power which has shifted to large retailers, which has then shifted to online etc...<br /><br />Anyway, I suppose there will be some mean reversion at some point, but may not be what we expect like in the past...<br /><br />Very tough situation. You really have to go by company and see what is going on at that level... <br /><br />kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-18613528087000432522021-02-12T19:59:54.209-05:002021-02-12T19:59:54.209-05:00Just by habit, I am pretty diversified... but that...Just by habit, I am pretty diversified... but that's just because if I see something and like it, I may buy it and then just own it forever etc... So it all adds up over time. Of course, I try to flush out the garbage every now and then... but not very concentrated is the truth even though I don't think that's necessarily the right way to do it... kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-2041274066064882032021-02-12T19:58:27.988-05:002021-02-12T19:58:27.988-05:00Hi, I actually have no opinion on that... I would ...Hi, I actually have no opinion on that... I would think S&P 500 is fine, but haven't really thought much about that. kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-28722184220272617312021-02-11T19:09:35.366-05:002021-02-11T19:09:35.366-05:00Thanks for the post. Any ideas on why long short (...Thanks for the post. Any ideas on why long short (systematic/quant) constructions of value have done so poorly? Regardless of the absolute value of P/Es, over the last decade really the market hasn't rewarded value cross sectionally, and relative spreads (PE, PB, PSales etc) are at significant highs.KAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-46618449671004306442021-01-30T11:18:29.429-05:002021-01-30T11:18:29.429-05:00I like your site and posts. Greetings from a germa...I like your site and posts. Greetings from a german value investor (try to be one). :)Value Investing 2050https://www.blogger.com/profile/04448763664662801073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-53083889783272847112021-01-26T19:32:02.260-05:002021-01-26T19:32:02.260-05:00Really? I sound different? lol... Things are fin...Really? I sound different? lol... Things are fine, thanks! kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-84871145262334575512021-01-26T09:07:49.467-05:002021-01-26T09:07:49.467-05:00Awesome blog. If anyone is interested I've wri...Awesome blog. If anyone is interested I've written up over 70 brief stock screens and backtests (for fun and opensource education). https://wordpress.com/view/dailyscreenz.home.blogDailyScreenzhttps://wordpress.com/view/dailyscreenz.home.blognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-11317239027437371782021-01-26T06:53:15.196-05:002021-01-26T06:53:15.196-05:00Welcome back. You sound different... I hope you ar...Welcome back. You sound different... I hope you are well.<br /><br />Thank you for posting again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-74033608893269329532021-01-26T01:37:40.384-05:002021-01-26T01:37:40.384-05:00Great post as always, really like your thought pro...Great post as always, really like your thought process. Just to get an idea about your position on diversification. Do you hold a rather concentrated portfolio (e.g. 10 positions) or are you more diversified (at least in terms of number of stock holdings)?<br /><br />MGnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-40826926632405726512021-01-25T16:01:46.965-05:002021-01-25T16:01:46.965-05:00For the next 10 years, do you think it is wise to ...For the next 10 years, do you think it is wise to replace SPY (S&p 500) with VUG (vanguard large cap growth) or even VTI ( vanguard total stock market)? Both VUG and VTI has been outperforming SPY for a while.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-43331036571197605552021-01-25T13:03:20.577-05:002021-01-25T13:03:20.577-05:00Thanks very much. I really appreciate your point o...Thanks very much. I really appreciate your point of view. JMBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17259419990455830396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-44354733742475728272021-01-25T11:32:23.647-05:002021-01-25T11:32:23.647-05:00Not sure 100% in stocks is right for everybody, bu...Not sure 100% in stocks is right for everybody, but yes, the idea is to *not* increase or decrease equity exposure based on forecasts for the market. Many great track records have been ruined by this. This goes all the way back to the Magellan fund when Jeff Vinick ran it, got bearish etc.. (of course, this goes back further than that, but that is one ruined track record I remember from way back). We've seen Fairfax and many others recently destroy their really great track records. And we've seen some mutual funds lose money every single year in this bull market, which is just nuts. How can an equity mutual fund lose money in a bull market?<br /><br />Having said that, 100% is not the right exposure for everyone, especially if a 50% decline is going to freak them out, or have a significant impact on their standard of living. <br /><br />Some cash is always good to have, even for spending emergencies; health, employment etc..., of course. But I don't worry about cash availability for bear markets because I assume my holdings will use *their* cash to take advantage of opportunities; strong companies always come out the other end bigger and stronger. And this doesn't have to be just cash spending for acquisitions; it can be to grow the business... I imagine that if you are CMG, SHAK or COST, you are finding better real estate opportunities to grow etc... <br />kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-25231718216887468652021-01-24T21:17:44.781-05:002021-01-24T21:17:44.781-05:00Got it, thanks for the reply. I used to use 8.5% ...Got it, thanks for the reply. I used to use 8.5% discount rate simply because that is a typical long-term market return. I am trying to see what the stock should trade at if it has a market return. Anyway, fun discussion and thanks again.steve353145https://www.blogger.com/profile/12788441845562293287noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-70674768835141464982021-01-24T12:58:41.302-05:002021-01-24T12:58:41.302-05:00Nice post. Regarding your rule ("don't t...Nice post. Regarding your rule ("don't time the market"), right now or even in 1999, your philosophy is staying always 100% in stocks? Really there is ever an 'excuse' to hold some cash, there is always some concerning trouble. It's very difficult to build a rule. <br /><br />Thanks. Greetings from Argentina! <br /><br />Juan JMBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17259419990455830396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-20272149325476847242021-01-24T10:27:07.042-05:002021-01-24T10:27:07.042-05:00I have no opinion on that either way. I do remembe...I have no opinion on that either way. I do remember reading about it in the past and it got a really high valuation just because of the Buffett connection. I have no reason to believe they will do poorly, but I would be cautious of things like this where things are bid up for the wrong reason. But again, they might do well. I just have no idea.kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-78104251414763731242021-01-24T10:25:26.235-05:002021-01-24T10:25:26.235-05:00The Japanese stock market was in a bubble in the l...The Japanese stock market was in a bubble in the late 80's. You can probably google up a lot of information on that.kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-44632206947198393812021-01-24T10:24:03.199-05:002021-01-24T10:24:03.199-05:00Yeah, I think I went over all that in one of my po...Yeah, I think I went over all that in one of my posts somewhere. You can use a 4% risk premium, 4% rates and 4% growth and you are back to 25x P/E. These models can change so dramatically based on changes in input. You can see all sorts of arguments about equity risk premium. I think Buffett/Munger said it's nonsense and has never actually seen it, or something like that, whatever that means. Anyway, it is an interesting discussion, but I don't spend much time on it... kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-12607810585130752822021-01-24T10:20:58.971-05:002021-01-24T10:20:58.971-05:00Yeah, I don't really understand those 30-50x s...Yeah, I don't really understand those 30-50x sales-type valuations at all. They don't make much sense to me.kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.com