tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post7377437022030260349..comments2024-03-17T05:15:55.634-04:00Comments on The Brooklyn Investor: Catmull's Mental ModelsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-56036809216447834282014-08-08T11:13:51.816-04:002014-08-08T11:13:51.816-04:00Ok in general I think I agree with you. But I'...Ok in general I think I agree with you. But I'm not so sure about Post; Stiritz seems to have lost the plot a little bit, with his excessive acquisitions spree (i don't think the street expected him to make as many acquisitions as he did) and his rather public dalliances with Herbalife (which is strange to say the least)..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-18539849732372898342014-08-08T09:52:27.198-04:002014-08-08T09:52:27.198-04:00Your owner operator Stiritz at Post is getting des...Your owner operator Stiritz at Post is getting destroyed today. Any thoughts? Thanks. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-22404656669434613752014-08-08T08:02:55.988-04:002014-08-08T08:02:55.988-04:00Hi,
Well, my response is that it depends. One t...Hi, <br /><br />Well, my response is that it depends. One thing the street always seems to do is to pick a category and then say it's always the same. When Heinz cut costs drastically, skeptics immediately said that they might have cut costs too much and they may suffer going forward. Not *all* cost cuts are bad. You have to look at *who* is doing the cost-cutting. Is management experienced with this sort of thing, or are they just cutting indiscriminately left and right and destroying the business? 3G Capital's historical record suggests that they know what they are doing, and history (and my own experience) shows that there is tremendous waste in some of these older companies that have been built up over the years. <br /><br />So roll-ups are like that too. Are *all* rollups bad? Of course not. There are some bad ones, like Tyco. CSCO's game didn't work out too well either even though it looked good for a while in the late 90's (use high stock price to acquire etc...).<br /><br />Valeant is a tough call but I wouldn't automatically throw it into the "it's a rollup so it's bad" category at all. BRK is sort of a roll-up too (what are they doing in real estate brokerage, for example. Kind of rollup-ish... <br /><br />Ackman does a good job of explaining VLX in his presentation (including accounting issues). <br /><br />As for POST, it is run by Bill Stiritz, a really great capital allocator. Druckenmiller called him the greatest capital allocator ever (or some such), so I wouldn't put POST in that category of bad rollup. I don't know if it will work out or not (cereal is under pressure etc...), but when you get a chance to invest with Stiritz, I think it's not a bad idea to hitch a ride. <br />kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-1043573669603884362014-08-07T21:07:08.935-04:002014-08-07T21:07:08.935-04:00Hi kk,
Really enjoy your blog - keep up the good ...Hi kk,<br /><br />Really enjoy your blog - keep up the good work!<br /><br />I was just reading up on a few interviews with Jim Chanos, and he mentioned that he likes to short companies that depend on acquisitions for growth. Talking about Valeant, he says “We’re short because it’s a roll-up and roll-ups have a unique set of problems,” “Roll-ups are generally accounting-driven, and we certainly think that’s the case in Valeant. We think that Valeant is playing some very aggressive accounting games when they buy companies, write down the assets.” <br /><br />What are your thoughts on this? Post seems to fit squarely into this category.<br /><br />Thanks,Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-20171254649928443422014-08-04T10:20:20.800-04:002014-08-04T10:20:20.800-04:00Hi,
I think a lot of large caps are reasonably p...Hi, <br /><br />I think a lot of large caps are reasonably priced. Buffett said stocks are in a zone of reasonableness and the market hasn't really done too much since then so what he said in the 2014 annual report is still valid. Go back and read it if you haven't. <br /><br />If you are worried that you buy stocks now and they 'crash' tommorow, then just spread out the purchases over time. But only invest an amount that you won't get stressed out if markets go down because they will every now and then... <br />kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-73183994699399656142014-08-02T21:54:56.703-04:002014-08-02T21:54:56.703-04:00So if you think small caps are over valued right n...So if you think small caps are over valued right now, what do you think about large caps? Also if the market is overvalued, what would you invest your cash in or would you hold onto it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-84360698268795549972014-07-25T18:06:14.523-04:002014-07-25T18:06:14.523-04:00Hi,
That's a very good question. I think fo...Hi, <br /><br />That's a very good question. I think for most people. an index fund (S&P 500) or BRK would be best for most of their equity exposure. And yes, I do agree that BRK's size (and other factors) make it likely it will outperform the S&P 500 by only a very small margin. Buffett has hired some great investment managers, and they can do great with a few billion. But I wonder how well they will do when some day they have to manage $100 billion. It won't be easy. Buffett has already said that the two T's are finding how hard it is to invest with much larger sums of capital. <br /><br />So for 'conservative' investors, I still think BRK/ S&P 500 index is fine, and frankly, I don't even have that much of a preference one way or the other. Obviously, BRK is probably a little better. <br /><br />For more enterprising investors, I think there are ways to find good capital allocators and pick stocks. <br /><br />As for the small cap value fund, I would be very careful as many measures seem to suggest that small caps are now highly overvalued, and that may explain the outpeformance (maybe small caps were cheaper back then and now are just way more expensive).<br /><br />I tend not to be a fan of looking at things that way, by market caps or sectors, even though some studies suggest small cap values do better than overall value etc... But then if you buy when things are very expensive, that may not be true going forward. I would avoid getting into specific market caps/sectors or anything like that just because of trailing performance figures. <br /><br />Anyway, that's just my opinion. <br /><br />Sorry for not being too helpful... kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-23509188724339505282014-07-25T10:24:55.854-04:002014-07-25T10:24:55.854-04:00I would be interested in your thoughts on owning B...I would be interested in your thoughts on owning BRK vs Small cap value index over the next 10+ years. As a true value investor, we all admire Buffets track record and value oriented wisdom. However, BRK has underperformed the small cap value etf and broad market over the last 15 and 10 years, respectively. At this point, given BRK's size, Warren's age and longevity, should BRK really be the highest conviction and largest weight in a value investors portfolio? I believe that you have said it could be a core holding that is like the S&P500 but will most likely slightly outperform. Any thoughts are most appreciated. Thanks. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-501201858693378662014-07-21T17:31:59.169-04:002014-07-21T17:31:59.169-04:00Rob K - I have to admit - my initial reaction to y...Rob K - I have to admit - my initial reaction to your posting a link in the comments was "spam", but after reading it, I have to say "Great job" and "keep it up". Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-60276364883972701512014-07-18T09:52:28.492-04:002014-07-18T09:52:28.492-04:00Wow, that's a nice, thorough article. Thanks ...Wow, that's a nice, thorough article. Thanks for the kind reference. Keep up the good work! kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-36369810780244203492014-07-17T16:43:13.039-04:002014-07-17T16:43:13.039-04:00Thanks for all your excellent blog posts. Just po...Thanks for all your excellent blog posts. Just posted an article on IBM on seeking alpha and referenced/linked to some of your articles here. Would love to hear any feedback if you have time. Thanks! here is the article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2318995-ibm-according-to-warren-buffetts-annual-letters-to-shareholdersRob Kolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05761573970817930803noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-18797327091106904792014-07-11T16:43:47.537-04:002014-07-11T16:43:47.537-04:00Hi, you guys are too kind. OK, so I added the ki...Hi, you guys are too kind. OK, so I added the kindle book to the store. If you already bought somewhere else, that's totally fine. I usually encourage people to try the library first anyway... kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-2260897284621610632014-07-11T15:58:03.661-04:002014-07-11T15:58:03.661-04:00just want to second the recommendation you make a ...just want to second the recommendation you make a kindle version available on your bookstore.<br />I have bought every book you recommended. would love to support you in any way I can (except buy hardcover)<br />look forward to each postAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-16634429271212006412014-07-10T20:44:15.892-04:002014-07-10T20:44:15.892-04:00Yes, exactly. Everyone's a long term investor...Yes, exactly. Everyone's a long term investor when the market is going up, and then they turn into macro traders when the market is down, lol... They want to be Buffett on the upside and Soros in a bear market. Yeah right. (how many of us got emails from friends and relatives asking us for advice on some good bear funds, dollar bear funds in 2008/09? etc...)kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-84846750465118548912014-07-10T20:42:08.525-04:002014-07-10T20:42:08.525-04:00Thanks. I'm glad you like the Davis quote... ...Thanks. I'm glad you like the Davis quote... (and the rest of the post) kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-84698400279387850372014-07-10T18:47:57.462-04:002014-07-10T18:47:57.462-04:00I really enjoyed this post. Charlie Munger said t...I really enjoyed this post. Charlie Munger said to always invert and it's great advice. With your comment about your friend being a value investor. A lot of folks I know said they're investing for the long-term, basically they're long-term investors. But they don't act that way when s#$% hits the ceiling fan. Henryhttp://livingathome.weebly.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-44641876459625111542014-07-10T18:07:59.603-04:002014-07-10T18:07:59.603-04:00This is an excellent post. As insightful as it was...This is an excellent post. As insightful as it was enjoyable to read. The Davis quote is fantastic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-13785270578178152132014-07-10T04:16:40.403-04:002014-07-10T04:16:40.403-04:00Interesting post - thanksInteresting post - thanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-51965413652651918722014-07-09T21:48:12.701-04:002014-07-09T21:48:12.701-04:00Hi,
Thanks for the thought. This is not a reven...Hi, <br /><br />Thanks for the thought. This is not a revenue business or anything like that so you can go ahead and order it whatever way you can. I thought that by putting something in the Brooklyn Investor store, that you would have options. I didn't realize there is no option for the Kindle version. Sometimes it says, "buy through Amazon" and you get other options, but in this case there is just "add to cart". <br /><br />So I don't know how that all works. I can add a Kindle version to the store, but then I would have two of the same book, and for me it's more of a directory of sorts than a business so I'd rather just keep it simple. <br /><br />Anyway, if there is a way to put one book in the store with many purchase options, I will do it that way. <br /><br />Thanks for the thought.kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-8026735529558429302014-07-09T21:07:27.685-04:002014-07-09T21:07:27.685-04:00I would really love to buy the book from your book...I would really love to buy the book from your bookstore, but you only give the hardcover option and I read kindle only these days. I do enjoy your blog, would like to buy it thru you. Miguelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09531734875286475335noreply@blogger.com