tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post4905807202089647222..comments2024-03-17T05:15:55.634-04:00Comments on The Brooklyn Investor: Leucadia National Annual Meeting Notes 2012Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-31400086096770704642012-11-13T06:54:39.653-05:002012-11-13T06:54:39.653-05:00Hi, I'll make a post later about this deal aft...Hi, I'll make a post later about this deal after going through the material. Stay tuned. kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-85322671385434681832012-11-12T10:48:15.005-05:002012-11-12T10:48:15.005-05:00Thoughts on this JEF acquisition? or rather, thou...Thoughts on this JEF acquisition? or rather, thoughts on the fact that they are paying for the acquisition with what appears to be under valued stock? It seems like given how cheap it is to borrow share holders would benefit more if they issued debt and used the proceeds to pay cash for JEF rather than issuing under valued stock and using that to pay for the acquisition.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-64566419490092896462012-07-09T18:33:43.366-04:002012-07-09T18:33:43.366-04:00Thanks for posting this. Did not find your blog un...Thanks for posting this. Did not find your blog until July. I did not get the LUK report this year because i traded in and out of the stock earlier this year to make a little money, made more on JEF, of course. Your notes were great. Thanks.Wildagaindanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16684156941117920731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-31422021647476111582012-05-20T16:30:09.842-04:002012-05-20T16:30:09.842-04:00I haven't looked at Inmet closely myself, but ...I haven't looked at Inmet closely myself, but the folks at LUK obviously still really like it. China demand softening is only one part of the equation and there is the other developing economies etc... Maybe I will take a closer look at this at some point... but I haven't yet.kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-65481072013316424072012-05-20T16:28:28.451-04:002012-05-20T16:28:28.451-04:00Hi, No, I haven't really taken a close look at...Hi, No, I haven't really taken a close look at that yet. I agree it's not obvious at first glance what is going on there. If I have anything interesting to say (as I look at it later), I may post something.kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-66668294262040430042012-05-20T11:36:47.678-04:002012-05-20T11:36:47.678-04:00Any additional comments on Inmet? Its trading belo...Any additional comments on Inmet? Its trading below book and below LUK´s cost. Any commets?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-73061768801245044582012-05-20T11:29:57.899-04:002012-05-20T11:29:57.899-04:00Thanks for posting all this information. Do you un...Thanks for posting all this information. Do you understand the Mueller investment? I know it will benefit from a rebound in construction, I just don´t think it is that cheap in order to buy 27,5% of the company. Probably I am not understanding it well and its actually pretty cheap. Any thoughts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-30071196322168853912012-05-19T13:42:11.191-04:002012-05-19T13:42:11.191-04:00I don't like that the meeting was so short as ...I don't like that the meeting was so short as well. There's so little transparency; Cumming seemed like it was all a formality. BH and BRKB meetings are much more useful. I'll have to see about GLRE on Monday.JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-16418866894116493312012-05-18T06:40:15.514-04:002012-05-18T06:40:15.514-04:00Thank you. I am really enjoying your blog and tha...Thank you. I am really enjoying your blog and thank you for writing it.Charlesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-33451770237193952052012-05-16T22:21:15.489-04:002012-05-16T22:21:15.489-04:00No, it's not adjusted; it's the stock pric...No, it's not adjusted; it's the stock price as it was seen back then. I just looked it up because Steinberg apparently said the stock was 25% overvalued back then (at the May 2000 annual meeting). The BPS for 1999 is from the 1999 10K. There have been splits since then...kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-35957007420183480842012-05-16T22:11:49.082-04:002012-05-16T22:11:49.082-04:00thanks for posting this, one question when you wri...thanks for posting this, one question when you write this BPS 12/30/1999 was 19.75/share - is that adjusted for a split? b/c i see book value listed on the 2011 annual letter (for 1999) as $6.59<br /><br />(By the way, on May 15, 2000, the stock price closed at $23.25/share. The BPS at 12/30/1999 was $19.75/share and $20.16/share at March 31, 2000).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-59680685259647005762012-05-16T14:38:31.590-04:002012-05-16T14:38:31.590-04:00I think when Mara mentioned Berman, the point was ...I think when Mara mentioned Berman, the point was that natural gas can't stay this low. I may have misheard and I haven't googled Berman yet, but what I thought Mara said is that Berman did some serious research on shale and that these projects, over time, won't work unless natgas prices are at $7.00/mcf. The implication was that even with all this new shale gas, natgas prices have to get back to $7.00 for a lot of these to become economical. <br /><br />Also, Buffett in a TV interview somewhere mentioned the natgas forward curve. He says that people are running around making plans and assumptions with $2.00 natgas prices, but if you look at the curve going out, forward prices are $4, 5/mcf. <br /><br />So the implication here is that I think LUK thinks that these low natgas prices are temporary and unsustainable even with this huge new supply and that when prices come back up from these extremely depressed levels, their energy projects can make a lot of money.kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-71940719805313357732012-05-16T14:27:53.642-04:002012-05-16T14:27:53.642-04:00In term of the Leucadia energy, did they elaborate...In term of the Leucadia energy, did they elaborate how they can make money? I thought the liquified coal is on hold because of the low natural gas price, so would the activity from the LNG export terminal? Would this be related to Japan shutting down all its reactors and they are already the biggest importer of LNG? Is there another piece there to Leucadia Energy that I am not aware of?Charlesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-75146749968745876442012-05-15T23:13:04.143-04:002012-05-15T23:13:04.143-04:00Sangart is clearly a biotech startup. But it isn&...Sangart is clearly a biotech startup. But it isn't that big. I don't get a lot of things they do; look at what goes in and out of their stock portfolio. I think they tend to bet on people they like. A lot of their smaller investments are head scratchers, but it's the big ones that count. <br /><br />Fortescue too was a startup lead by a 'difficult' person. Wiltel was a scary pick but I think they got out at break even with a $5+ billion in tax loss carryforwards etc... <br /><br />You know what Steinberg would say; if you don't like what you see, then sell the stock, lol...kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-62271952423656373032012-05-15T22:48:30.329-04:002012-05-15T22:48:30.329-04:00I don't get how some of their investments with...I don't get how some of their investments with lots of "potential" are value investments, namely Sangart, Leucadia Energy's gasification, and Italian telecom. I got a bad vibe at the meeting. I recognize that they are different than Buffett, but they seem to have lost focus on finding long-term value and have instead moved into things that are hopes and dreams.JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-67624546934394012582012-05-15T21:23:28.048-04:002012-05-15T21:23:28.048-04:00I didn't count, but I don't blame them eit...I didn't count, but I don't blame them either. They do what they do. It's either you understand what they are up to and go along, or you get out. Steinberg is just being straight and blunt with shareholders and that's a good thing. <br /><br />He said they are an inflation play so if you don't think inflation is coming, sell LUK stock. That may just be good, honest advice because they can get killed in a deflationary collapse. Also, people keep comparing LUK to BRK even though they are almost the exact opposite (BRK is investment grade / LUK is junk rated. BRK buys quality (top feeder), LUK buys problems (bottom feeder). BRK buys and holds forever, LUK buys to sell (this may change over time for succession/durability issues) etc...<br /><br />I think he is doing people a favor by being so straight and blunt. Don't expect to wake up the next morning and see Cumming/Steinberg turn into Buffett; it won't happen.kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-78178723723816222472012-05-15T20:51:44.831-04:002012-05-15T20:51:44.831-04:00how many times did they say the words "sell y...how many times did they say the words "sell your shares" in the meeting. my count was 5. you want us to forecast copper prices? sell your shares. you want a moat? sell your shares and buy Berkshire. you think the sky is blue? sell your shares!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-43449557048734808362012-05-15T20:09:33.203-04:002012-05-15T20:09:33.203-04:00Thanks for sharing the notes! Much appreciated.Thanks for sharing the notes! Much appreciated.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-9020203194916752972012-05-15T16:22:46.926-04:002012-05-15T16:22:46.926-04:00They're just being conservative. In the annua...They're just being conservative. In the annual report, they did say good deals are hard to find as hedge funds / private equity have a lot of cash and interest rates are low. Money costs 8% for LUK, so raising money now, paying 8% and then waiting can be expensive. Tisch at Loews said the same thing on a conference call recently; they can sell bonds and pay interest on it for negative carry until a good deal comes along, but they don't want to pay the negative carry when they don't know when an elephant may show up. Sure, they can lock in a low rate now, but that is offset by the time it might take until they can deploy it. Net, net, they'd rather not issue bonds at this point...kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-38354004467063530022012-05-15T16:08:06.616-04:002012-05-15T16:08:06.616-04:00seems the "deleveraging" is a kind of &q...seems the "deleveraging" is a kind of "hedge" against their huge inflation bets. After all, even if inflation comes much later, the businesses will chug along, although not do anything spectacular.<br />Seems C&S underpromise and overdeliver, sure they say their busiensses are crap compared to Berkshire but their history shows they are trying to get 5 and 10 baggers while at the same time claiming 15% pre-tax.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-51011072241096351562012-05-15T15:34:43.971-04:002012-05-15T15:34:43.971-04:00Hmm... I don't know what you mean. It was pos...Hmm... I don't know what you mean. It was positive in the sense that LUK seems to be well-positioned and there was no complaining or anything. But negative in the sense of Cumming/Steinberg's views of the world.kkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299974418283948333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5389144729834496735.post-78541967107685725022012-05-15T15:31:21.623-04:002012-05-15T15:31:21.623-04:00Thanks for taking the time to publish your notes. ...Thanks for taking the time to publish your notes. Would you say that the tone of the meeting was positive? Thanks.phughes500https://www.blogger.com/profile/18066455777236535819noreply@blogger.com